ATP Next Gen Finals: Who is in the race to Jeddah? And how will the event evolve?

This text is a part of The Subsequent Technology sequence. Because the greats, comparable to Roger Federer, Serena Williams and Rafael Nadal turn out to be the previous, and Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek deal with the current, The Athletic explores the subsequent era: the rising stars who might be tasked with securing tennis’ future.

Over the past seven years the ATP Subsequent Gen Finals has established itself on the tennis calendar. There was quite a lot of pleasure when it started in 2017 in Milan, as a manner of showcasing the eight finest gamers aged 21 and below from the season simply gone, whereas trialling totally different guidelines and improvements which may then graduate to the primary ATP Tour.

The event was the primary to make use of digital line calling and a video evaluate system, whereas the scoring system is exclusive — 5 units of first to 4 video games, with a tiebreak at 3-3 in every set. The concept is to have fewer video games with much less at stake, and extra video games on the “enterprise finish” of units.

The foundations have been barely tweaked for 2024, with the age cut-off now 20 as an alternative of 21, in recognition of the truth that gamers like Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune have made their breakthroughs sooner than was typical on the event’s inception. When the Finals began in 2017, with the Massive Three of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic nonetheless so dominant, it was rarer for gamers to make their mark when aged 21 or below.

This yr’s occasion additionally has a unique time slot, shifting from early December final yr to December 18-22 — which means it is going to act nearly as a pre-season occasion for 2025 (with the primary occasions of subsequent yr’s season beginning on December 27 and December 30). As with final yr, the event might be held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

For now, the eight qualifiers stay unknown, however a number of gamers are already in a robust place. Extra broadly, the ATP Subsequent Gen Finals is approaching an inflection level. Within the sluggish absence of the Massive Three, whether or not by retirement or the loosening of their grip on the game’s greatest prizes, how the occasion will evolve — and the character of its function inside the tennis ecosystem — are each up for debate. And outdoors of males’s tennis, how possible is an equal occasion on the ladies’s facet, and the place may that occur?

Beginning with the query round who will qualify, the person comfortably main the race to Jeddah is the massively proficient Frenchman, Arthur Fils. The 20-year-old has maybe not exploded fairly as rapidly as some anticipated, however it’s nonetheless been a yr that has seen him attain the Wimbledon fourth spherical, and win his first 500-level ATP occasion — beating Alexander Zverev within the German’s residence nation in a tense Hamburg remaining two months in the past.

Arthur Fils serving at Wimbledon. (Glyn Kirk / AFP by way of Getty Pictures)

Subsequent within the race is America’s Alex Michelsen, who was crushed by Jannik Sinner within the U.S. Open second spherical final month. The 20-year-old Californian is as much as a career-high rating of No. 47 after a massively promising summer season during which he reached the finals in each Newport, Rhode Island, and Winston-Salem, N.C., in addition to the quarters on the Citi Open in Washington, D.C.

Arising behind them are Shang Juncheng (19, from China), Jakub Mensik (19, from the Czech Republic) and Luca Van Assche (20, from France). All three of these gamers have reached Grand Slam third rounds this yr. Shang, generally known as Jerry, and Mensik are ranked contained in the world’s high 70 and are fairly secure bets to make Jeddah, whereas Van Assche is simply exterior the world’s high 100.

Under him come the three gamers presently within the qualification spots, separated by simply 79 factors. They’re Joao Fonseca of Brazil (18), the American, Learner Tien (18), and Lithuania’s Vilius Gaubas (19). Fonseca and Tien have every garnered loads of consideration in 2024 for eye-catching leads to Rio and Winston-Salem respectively. Earlier within the yr, Tien put collectively a 28-match successful streak between Might and July, incomes a wildcard for the U.S. Open within the course of.

Joao Fonseca celebrating throughout a Davis Cup victory this month. (Emmanuele Ciancaglini / Getty Pictures for ITF)

The gamers closest to pinching one of many final qualification spots are Portugal’s Henrique Rocha and Coleman Wong of Hong Kong (each 20). They’re solely 21 and 31 factors respectively behind Gaubas.

Had 21-year-olds nonetheless been eligible then one other thrilling Frenchman, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, and Luca Nardi, who beat Novak Djokovic in Indian Wells earlier this yr, can be within the qualification spots. As would America’s Zachary Svajda.

Even when these 21-years-olds have been eligible, it nonetheless wouldn’t be a stellar lineup in comparison with the primary version, say, which in 2017 included Andrey Rublev, Denis Shapovalov, Daniil Medvedev and Borna Coric — all kids who had fairly a little bit of buzz round them. Likewise the 2 alternates Stefanos Tsitsipas and Frances Tiafoe.

Normally, it’s been an occasion that has been a great indicator of future success. The winners of the Subsequent Gen Finals have been Chung Hyeon, Tsitsipas, Sinner, Alcaraz, Brandon Nakashima and Hamad Medjedovic. Of these first 4, two are a number of Grand Slam winners and future world No. 1s, one is a two-time main finalist, and even Chung has an Australian Open semifinal to his identify regardless of a horrific run of accidents since his Subsequent Gen title. Earlier this month a video from the 2019 occasion did the rounds, with Sinner alongside Tiafoe and Alex de Minaur, forward of all three of them competing within the U.S. Open quarterfinals. Tiafoe made the semis; Sinner gained the entire thing.

The ATP has been happy with how the occasion has given younger gamers publicity, with stable attendances in Milan when it was hosted there between 2017 and 2022. Unsurprisingly, Jeddah was extra of a problem final yr.

The concept of a Subsequent Gen has turn out to be a well-established idea in males’s tennis, and having an annual occasion is a manner of solidifying that. The totally different scoring system, singles-only courtroom, and improvements like headsets for the gamers to speak with their coaches give the finals a particular really feel. The spectacular record of former winners (and runners up like Rublev, De Minaur and Sebastian Korda) provides it credibility. And so long as gamers are progressing from the Subsequent Gen Finals to the highest echelons of the game, and never leaping straight previous the occasion to that stratosphere, the ATP considers it to have a worthwhile spot within the calendar.

There have been discussions about having such an occasion on the WTA Tour in Saudi Arabia, The Athletic has been informed by well-placed sources who want to stay nameless to guard relationships, however nothing has been confirmed (and there definitely gained’t be an occasion this yr). In November, the WTA Finals might be hosted within the Saudi capital of Riyadh for the primary of three editions there.

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Ought to a Subsequent Gen-type occasion occur, the WTA must decide on what the age cutoff must be. Usually WTA gamers have damaged by faster than ATP ones partially as a result of usually girls mature bodily earlier than males. Because it stands although, there are presently solely 11 gamers who’re aged 21 and below within the high 100 (9 on the lads’s facet) and 6 gamers below 20 (4 on the lads’s facet).

So an occasion for both age group would work fantastic with out having to make it too younger an age bracket which could really feel like an excessive amount of strain too quickly. That mentioned, Coco Gauff would clearly skip a Subsequent Gen-style occasion as she would qualify for the primary WTA Finals.

The WTA does even have some historical past with placing on this type of occasion. Between 2014 and 2018, there have been 5 editions of the Future Stars occasion, which showcased among the finest younger expertise within the recreation. These although have been executed by area and by invitation. In 2015, forward of the WTA finals in Singapore, there have been 4 23-or-under gamers chosen to participate. The parameters have been that two of the gamers needed to be from Asia-Pacific and the others needed to be from the remainder of the world. 9 years on, the choice has aged extraordinarily effectively, with the quartet made up of Naomi Osaka, Zhu Lin, Caroline Garcia and Ons Jabeur. Osaka, who had simply turned 18, gained the occasion.

Naomi Osaka went on to win 4 main titles by the age of 23. (Clive Brunskill / Getty Pictures)

A contemporary-day equal would possible generate loads of pleasure, because it has executed intermittently for the lads’s occasion. Particularly when real future stars like Alcaraz have been concerned.

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(Prime photograph: Fiona Goodall / Getty Pictures)