Finally month’s Winter Conferences in Dallas, agent Joel Wolfe held court docket in entrance of a big group of reporters and prompted a stir when discussing his shopper, Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki, who is anticipated to signal with a major-league workforce after the worldwide signing interval begins on Jan. 15.
Hypothesis about the place Sasaki would in the end land in MLB has simmered since his Nippon Skilled Baseball debut in 2021, stoked by his stellar efficiency within the 2023 World Baseball Traditional. The Dodgers are at present seen as a favourite, however it’s clear they’re not the one workforce within the hunt.
On the Winter Conferences, Wolfe mentioned that Sasaki was on the lookout for a workforce that has had success on the sphere and a historical past of creating pitchers. He additionally talked about entry to direct flights from his new metropolis to Japan as a consideration. However maybe most apparently, he mentioned that due to Sasaki’s private experiences rising up within the highlight in Japan, a small market workforce outdoors of the media glare might need a larger probability than some may suppose.
“I feel that there’s an argument to be made {that a} smaller, mid-market workforce could be extra useful for him as a comfortable touchdown coming from Japan, given what he’s been via and never having an fulfilling expertise with the media,” Wolfe mentioned. “It could be — I’m not saying it will likely be — I don’t know the way he’s going to view it, however it could be useful for him to be in a smaller market.”
Groups took be aware, with some altering their shows to account for the perceived preferences.
Sasaki, 23, was formally posted final month by Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines. He can decide his workforce, however as a result of he isn’t a free agent, he shall be certain by worldwide signing bonus limits.
Simply earlier than the brand new 12 months, Wolfe held a teleconference and mentioned 20 groups submitted pitches for Sasaki.
However the place will he go? And will it actually be a workforce outdoors of the large coastal juggernauts? Would it not be potential to interrupt down which groups could be good suits for Sasaki, utilizing solely the standards Wolfe laid out? (Whereas after all understanding that there are lots of, many components at play past these.)
For this train, we checked out all 30 groups and graded them on 4 components (historical past of success, small media market, pitching improvement and entry to Japan), rating every workforce from one via 30 based mostly on a particular metric. The most effective earned 30 factors and the worst earned one level in every class.
We don’t know who will in the end win the Sasaki Sweepstakes, however maybe some groups have a greater probability than we beforehand thought.
Historical past of success
What Wolfe mentioned: “The most effective I can say is, he has paid consideration to how groups have executed, so far as general success, each this 12 months and years previous. He does watch lots of Main League Baseball.”
Methodology: That is fairly simple. Does the workforce win? For this, we’ll have a look at the profitable proportion of MLB groups during the last 4 full seasons.
Limitations: Utilizing simply the regular-season win totals from the final 4 seasons doesn’t embrace postseason success. This system additionally weighs every season equally, and the 2021 Orioles (52 wins) and the 2021 White Sox (93 wins) are in a lot totally different conditions than their 2025 counterparts.
Workforce profitable proportion, 2021-24
98
100
111
106
415
30
89
104
101
88
382
29
88
90
106
95
379
28
94
82
99
92
367
27
93
92
86
95
366
26
80
99
86
100
365
25
95
90
87
82
354
24
85
88
90
90
353
23
80
79
81
107
347
22
74
89
92
91
346
21
93
82
89
79
343
20
89
75
101
77
342
19
92
76
92
80
340
18
83
71
93
90
337
17
81
78
78
92
329
16
91
101
83
52
327
15
82
87
78
73
320
14
83
83
74
71
311
13
86
78
66
77
307
12
77
82
62
83
304
11
89
84
74
52
299
10
78
90
68
60
296
9
63
73
73
77
286
8
62
84
69
67
282
7
86
56
65
74
281
6
41
61
81
93
276
5
76
76
62
61
275
4
69
50
60
86
265
3
71
71
55
65
262
2
61
59
68
74
262
2
Conclusion: The Dodgers are good. We knew that. Solely as soon as within the final 4 years has the workforce didn’t win 100 video games — and in that season, they received the World Sequence. With no repeat World Sequence winners over that interval, it’s clear that if profitable is all that issues, becoming a member of the Dodgers is the way in which to go.
However don’t rely out the Braves. Atlanta has the second-most regular-season victories during the last 4 seasons and a latest World Sequence title of their very own. The Astros, who received the World Sequence in 2022, have the third-most victories over that point. The Rangers received a World Sequence in 2023, however solely eight groups have fewer regular-season victories during the last 4 years.
If there’s a sleeper on this group, it’s the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee’s received the fifth-most regular-season video games (366) and solely the New York Yankees have received extra regular-season video games (367) with out a World Sequence title in that timeframe.
Small media markets
What Wolfe mentioned: “I feel that there’s an argument to be made {that a} smaller, mid-market workforce could be extra useful for him as a comfortable touchdown coming from Japan.”
Methodology: Not all media markets are created equal. Boston is the seventh-largest TV market within the nation, however taking part in in Boston is historically thought-about a very intense media expertise. Boston, New York and Philadelphia have reputations as among the many hardest media markets, whereas massive markets like Los Angeles, Dallas and Atlanta don’t have the identical popularity. For this train, we’ve used the 2024 Baseball Writers Affiliation of America rolls and ranked every chapter by the variety of members listed in that chapter as a mirrored image of the media consideration.
Limitations: Utilizing the BBWAA chapters simply tells whole numbers, it doesn’t embrace simply what number of writers are on the ballpark on daily basis. Additionally, there are 5 chapters — New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Baltimore-Washington and San Francisco-Oakland — with two groups. Each groups share the identical rating, even when the media surrounding the Dodgers or Cubs is larger than the Angels or White Sox. The New York chapter is by far the biggest as a result of many nationwide writers additionally stay in New York. Of the one-team chapters, solely Boston had extra members in 2024 than Miami, though a lot of Miami’s members cowl gamers from Spanish-speaking international locations as a lot or greater than the Marlins. Additionally, this metric doesn’t embrace TV or radio protection. It additionally doesn’t issue within the Japanese media, which travels to cowl the nation’s finest gamers, no matter the place they’re taking part in. In 2020, a minimum of two Japanese media members have been in Cincinnati for a lot of the season only for Shogo Akiyama, who spent that season largely as a platoon participant.
Media market dimension
Milwaukee
8
30
Tampa Bay
10
29
Cincinnati
11
28
Colorado
13
27
San Diego
13
27
Cleveland
14
25
Kansas Metropolis
15
24
Arizona
16
23
Houston
17
22
Dallas-Fort Price
18
21
St. Louis
18
21
Pittsburgh
19
19
Atlanta
20
18
Minnesota
20
18
Seattle
21
16
Detroit
23
15
Philadelphia
28
14
San Francisco-Oakland
30
13
San Francisco-Oakland
30
13
Toronto
32
11
Chicago
33
10
Chicago
33
10
Miami
34
8
Baltimore-Washington
37
7
Baltimore-Washington
37
7
Boston
39
5
Los Angeles
60
4
Los Angeles
60
4
New York
132
2
New York
132
2
Conclusion: The Brewers, Rays, Reds and Rockies may actually bear down on Wolfe’s feedback about small markets and media consideration of their pitch.
Creating pitching
What Wolfe mentioned: “He’s talked to lots of gamers, overseas gamers, which were on his workforce with Chiba Lotte. He requested questions on climate, comfortability, pitching improvement.”
Methodology: For this train, we’ll use Cy Younger Award voting from the previous 4 years. This, after all, advantages groups with established pitchers and groups just like the Yankees who signal big-name free brokers, however utilizing the cumulative voting totals hopefully offers credit score to groups whose pitchers constantly garner votes. For pitchers who have been traded throughout the season during which they earned factors, we’ve used the workforce that pitchers began the season with as a result of the majority of the innings and the preparation have been from the primary workforce.
Limitations: That is much less quantifiable than easy W-L data. Some groups are recognized for creating their pitchers on the minor-league stage and a few, just like the Astros and Rays, are recognized for taking proficient pitchers and enhancing them.
Utilizing simply the Cy Younger voting limits the pool to largely starters, which is OK since Sasaki goes to be signed and used as a starter. However this technique solely measures the perfect performances, and the way a lot of that’s on the pitcher and the way a lot of that’s on the workforce? It additionally reductions earlier developments, corresponding to giving the Yankees credit score on Gerrit Cole, who turned an ace whereas with the Astros and was drafted by the Pirates. It additionally offers extra weight to the voting outcomes, with unanimous picks incomes a a lot increased level whole than shut choices.
Cy Younger votes, 2021-24
0
86
88
207
381
30
133
28
48
141
350
29
199
64
75
0
338
28
0
210
4
123
337
27
59
204
7
0
270
26
18
6
224
14
262
25
0
0
210
0
210
24
210
0
0
0
210
24
0
13
20
172
205
22
0
0
97
93
190
21
18
86
32
7
143
20
141
0
0
0
141
19
0
0
66
73
139
18
0
115
0
8
123
17
0
68
45
0
113
16
0
0
0
113
113
16
47
42
0
0
89
14
0
0
82
1
83
13
67
0
5
0
72
12
38
31
0
69
11
25
31
0
0
56
10
53
0
0
0
53
9
0
1
0
41
42
8
0
19
10
0
29
7
1
16
6
1
24
6
0
0
0
23
23
5
4
0
1
3
8
4
5
0
0
0
5
3
2
0
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
Conclusion: The Blue Jays, surprisingly, high the listing. A lot of that comes from Robbie Ray’s 2021 Cy Younger marketing campaign, however the workforce additionally had third-place finishers in 2022 (Alek Manoah) and 2023 (Kevin Gausman). Manoah is the one a kind of three to come back up via the Blue Jays’ system (and we’ll ignore what’s occurred since then), whereas Ray received the award in his first full season. Gausman’s third-place end got here in his first 12 months with the workforce after signing as a free agent.
The Phillies completed second, adopted by the Braves. The Brewers completed ninth by this metric, however that would appear low contemplating the pitching the Brewers have gotten during the last 4 years. The Astros, a workforce credited with turning round a number of pitching careers, completed sixth.
Direct flights to and from Japan
What Wolfe mentioned: “After we provide data to our Japanese gamers, lengthy earlier than they arrive over right here, one of many issues that we offer for them is direct flights from Japan and the period of time it takes for household to come back and go to you. I take into consideration 5 or 10 years in the past that was one thing that possibly they weighed somewhat bit extra, however now you’ll be able to fly direct from Japan to a lot of the main cities within the U.S.”
Methodology: There are direct flights to Japan from 15 totally different airports within the continental United States. Toronto additionally has direct flights to Japan. For this train, we are going to use the gap from the workforce’s residence ballpark to the closest airport with a direct flight to Japan.
Limitations: There are a ton, however we’ll begin with the truth that when touring, probably the most related unit of measurement is time, not distance. Nonetheless, variables together with frequency of flights, schedules, site visitors and general distance come into play — a flight with a cease from the West Coast will probably take much less time than a nonstop flight from the East Coast to Japan. And, sure, O’Hare airport might solely be 14 miles from Wrigley Discipline, however there are occasions of day that it may be a protracted drive.
Direct flights to Japan
SAN
4
30
BOS
6
29
JFK
9
28
DFW
10
27
MSP
12
26
SFO
12
26
SEA
12
26
ORD
14
23
IAH
17
22
JFK/EWR
17
22
LAX
19
20
ORD
20
19
DTW
20
19
DEN
22
17
ATL
23
16
YYZ
25
15
IAD
28
14
LAX
39
13
IAD
61
12
ORD
80
11
EWR
85
10
SFO
96
9
DTW
157
8
IAD
238
7
DTW
251
6
ORD
298
5
SAN
360
4
MSP
435
3
ATL
450
2
ATL
655
1
Conclusion: San Diego is the clear winner right here. San Diego Worldwide Airport doesn’t have the amount of flights accessible at LAX, however it does have the bonus of not being LAX or having LAX site visitors, which might add hours to journey time. The Twins are a sneaky great place with direct flights.
Of be aware: Although it isn’t mirrored in our calculation, Seattle gives the shortest flight time (10 hours, 10 minutes) to Tokyo.
Ultimate conclusion
Ultimate totals
103
20
26
30
27
97
28
25
22
22
91
29
28
16
18
89
26
22
11
30
81
22
20
26
13
78
27
27
22
2
77
21
30
15
11
77
24
29
10
14
75
23
10
26
16
75
14
17
26
18
72
30
18
20
4
70
12
24
19
15
63
18
12
8
25
63
25
7
2
29
59
9
2
27
21
58
16
8
29
5
57
13
11
23
10
55
19
6
28
2
55
5
21
19
10
53
10
16
4
23
52
6
19
3
24
48
15
14
12
7
48
11
3
6
28
47
17
4
5
21
47
2
1
17
27
40
7
24
1
8
39
2
16
14
7
39
4
9
7
19
38
8
13
13
4
30
3
5
9
13
Why are the nice groups good? Properly, these good groups win video games, develop gamers and have cash. These three are literally tied to the classes given — with market dimension partially figuring out each direct flights to Japan and media consideration, each of which affect income. That’s why it’s no shock that the highest three groups in our train are the Padres, Braves and Astros.
It is just after we get to fourth place that we’ve a kind of small-market groups within the Brewers. The Brewers tick all these packing containers, with an out-of-the-box decide in O’Hare Worldwide. (It might be in a unique state, however O’Hare is simply over an hour and a $114 Uber trip from Milwaukee.)
Will the Brewers be the decide? It appears unlikely, however Matt Arnold’s workforce could make some attention-grabbing factors in its gross sales pitch.
The Padres had already been a workforce seen as having a shot at Sasaki’s providers, and never simply due to the workforce’s latest historical past of handing out main contracts and making massive splashes. The Padres tick all of the packing containers that Wolfe laid out, each generally phrases and in our train. Whereas the highest 10 is affected by big-market bullies, the Mariners, who’ve as a lot historical past with Japanese gamers as any workforce, completed tenth, adopted by the Twins. Each groups are forward of the Dodgers on this listing, however someway, it appears Los Angeles nonetheless has a fairly good probability of touchdown one other Japanese celebrity.
(Picture of Roki Sasaki: Eric Espada / Getty Photos)
