The Jaguars overestimated themselves. Did they overestimate Trevor Lawrence, too?

The NFL’s greatest shock groups by way of Week 4 reside at reverse ends of the standings.

The Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 after shedding their extremely drafted rookie quarterback and substituting the well-traveled Sam Darnold in his place.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-4 lower than 4 months after rewarding their quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, with a $275 million extension.

Right here’s one other shock: Lawrence’s statistical manufacturing by way of his 54 profession begins mirrors the manufacturing for Darnold to the identical level in his profession (Darnold has made begins No. 57-60 this season).

It’s early for a Jaguars post-mortem, however to this point, Jacksonville suits the profile of a staff that overestimated itself, symbolized most resoundingly when paying its quarterback. The staff is going through robust questions sooner than anticipated as a result of winnable video games slipped away, leaving the Jaguars 0-4 for the second time in 4 seasons with Lawrence, and for the fourth time in 13 seasons with proprietor Shad Khan.

The schedule delivers beatable opponents over the following three weeks within the Indianapolis Colts (2-2), Chicago Bears (2-2) and New England Patriots (1-3), however sufficient has gone incorrect by way of the Jaguars’ first 4 video games to look at the proof. Together with that Darnold-Lawrence comp.

“It won’t finish properly”

The Jaguars usually are not the one staff to speculate market-setting {dollars} in a quarterback carrying query marks lengthy earlier than there was a deadline for making a call. The Miami Dolphins acted equally with Tua Tagovailoa, as did the Arizona Cardinals with Kyler Murray. Each Lawrence and Murray signed extensions with two years remaining on their rookie contracts.

Shortly after the Jaguars prolonged Lawrence’s deal for $55 million yearly, 50 coaches and executives voting in my 2024 Quarterback Tiers survey mixed to position Lawrence in Tier 3. Lawrence ranked sixteenth. Tagovailoa was one spot greater. Murray was one spot decrease. (These three quarterbacks’ groups are a mixed 2-10 this season.)

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The deal for Lawrence got here after the Jaguars misplaced 5 of their remaining six video games final season, with the one victory coming towards Carolina, when Lawrence was unavailable due to damage.

“They’ve a quarterback they assume is a celebrity, and he’s not a celebrity,” a QB Tiers voter mentioned over the summer time. “Possession thinks he’s a celebrity. It won’t finish properly.”

The implication was that Lawrence could be good, however not nice, and that he isn’t ok persistently sufficient to fulfill sky-high expectations.

“Make no mistake, that is the most effective staff assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars, ever,” Khan instructed followers in late August. “Greatest gamers, greatest coaches. However most significantly, let’s show it by profitable now.”

The Darnold comp

By way of 54 begins, Darnold and Lawrence had similar won-lost data (20-34), the identical yards per cross try (6.7) and almost the identical common air yards per try. Their passer rankings lagged. Darnold took extra sacks. Lawrence suffered from extra dropped passes.

Lawrence had the higher anticipated factors added (EPA) per cross play, however in trying on the desk beneath, we’d by no means conclude that considered one of these quarterbacks deserved a market-setting extension, whereas the opposite was an abject failure.

Each gamers skilled horrible staff conditions early of their careers — Darnold with the New York Jets within the NFL’s largest media market, Lawrence with Jacksonville in its smallest.

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“Good gamers could be in dangerous conditions, dangerous gamers could be in good conditions and it takes a short time to determine the true advantage generally,” a veteran coach mentioned.

Lawrence badly missed two open receivers, Christian Kirk and rookie Brian Thomas Jr., for what would have been lengthy landing passes in the course of the Jaguars’ 24-20 defeat at Houston in Week 4.

With these throws presumably in thoughts, coach Doug Pederson pushed again when requested after the sport about probably taking on play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Press Taylor.

“For what?” Pederson replied. “I assumed he referred to as an awesome sport. As coaches, we are able to’t go on the market and make the performs. It’s a two-way road.”

Lawrence missed Thomas alongside the correct sideline for what would have been one other large acquire. Receivers made diving catches to safe two shorter throws. Different passes have been imprecise sufficient to restrict yards after the catch. A lot of the misses have been overthrows.

“When somebody is so persistently spraying the ball and they’re a man who was a No. 1 total (draft alternative), I nearly at all times really feel like there may be some aspect of, I don’t wish to say the yips, however some kind of mechanical, basic factor,” NFL quarterback-turned-analyst J.T. O’Sullivan mentioned whereas breaking down each Jaguars offensive play from Week 4 for his Patreon subscribers.

O’Sullivan famous that Lawrence on this sport hopped backward unnecessarily whereas throwing. Dangerous habits can set in when quarterbacks don’t belief their cross safety. Lawrence took a punishing hit early within the Houston sport because the Texans’ bodily defensive entrance asserted itself.

The Jaguars rank sixteenth in ESPN’s pass-block win charge metric and twenty third in Professional Soccer Focus’ pass-block grading, which doesn’t appear so dangerous. Evaluations from inside the league have been harsher.

“They play up entrance like they will’t wait till the play is over — robust to look at,” a personnel govt mentioned earlier than the Houston sport. “The quarterback is lacking straightforward throws. There’s dangerous physique language. Simply generally, offensively, a downtrodden group.”

Contemplating a possible Wentz parallel

The Philadelphia Eagles ranked 18th in offensive EPA per play throughout Pederson’s Tremendous Bowl-winning tenure as their coach from 2016 to 2020. That interval encompassed the rise and fall of Carson Wentz. Is Lawrence following an identical arc on a smaller scale?

The chart above compares the cumulative cross EPA for Wentz and Lawrence when each have been with Pederson, pegged to profession begin quantity. The road for Wentz begins at profession begin No. 1, whereas the road for Lawrence begins at profession begin No. 18. There’s nothing definitive right here, however this might be value revisiting because the 2024 season progresses.

Pederson benched Wentz late of their fifth and remaining season collectively. Lawrence stays early in his fourth NFL season and third with Pederson. His five-year contract extension begins in 2026. He’s probably going to be in Jacksonville for years to return, regardless of who’s teaching.

9 consecutive defeats for Lawrence

Lawrence’s present nine-game shedding streak as a starter strikes him one away from matching Carson Palmer (2010) and Jared Goff (2020-21) for the longest such streaks since 2000 for quarterbacks drafted No. 1.

Ten would additionally match the Jaguars’ franchise file, held by Chad Henne and Blake Bortles.

Darnold has been there earlier than, as soon as shedding 9 straight with the Jets. However his current staff and particular person manufacturing far outpaces that of Lawrence, because the desk beneath reveals.

The choice to increase Lawrence’s contract at such an costly value doesn’t stand alone amongst decisions inviting scrutiny for Jacksonville. They used the primary decide within the 2022 draft for Travon Walker as a substitute of Aidan Hutchinson. Larger-picture defensive modifications additionally stand out.

Final season, the Jaguars ranked twenty third on offense and eleventh on protection as measured by EPA per play. They fired defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and 7 defensive assistants.

The offense ranks about the identical this season (twenty fourth), however the protection ranks a lot worse (thirtieth) whereas transitioning to a brand new model. Beneath coordinator Ryan Nielsen, Jacksonville is taking part in man protection on the second-highest charge (42 p.c) after having the third-lowest charge (15 p.c) final season.

Darnold, backed by the NFL’s top-ranked protection by EPA per play, has tried solely two passes whereas trailing this season. The Jaguars’ file and Lawrence’s function in it will probably be footnotes if Jacksonville have been getting that sort of manufacturing from its protection this season.

The defensive modifications may nonetheless repay. Lawrence and the offense may nonetheless hit stride.

The Jaguars have been near breaking open their season-opening sport at Miami, however working again Travis Etienne fumbled as he neared the aim line. The Dolphins scored an 80-yard landing two performs later. Jacksonville led Houston 20-17 late within the third quarter when Tank Bigsby’s 58-yard run gave the Jaguars first-and-goal from the 4. Jacksonville turned over the ball on downs.

The 24-20 defeat to Houston dropped the Jaguars to 1-4 because the begin of final season in video games determined by 4 or fewer factors. Such issues are inclined to even out. The night out can’t occur quick sufficient for a staff set to induct its solely profitable coach, Tom Coughlin, into its Ring of Honor in Week 5.

(Picture of Trevor Lawrence, proper, and Doug Pederson: Bryan Bennett / Getty Photographs)

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