Which college football teams are most helped — and hurt — by conference realignment?

There was a lot discourse because the newest spherical of realignment and media offers that each crew within the ACC and the Massive 12 ought to need to be within the Massive Ten or SEC, as a result of these conferences take advantage of cash. However the followers themselves aren’t seeing a dime of it. Their lone concern is whether or not their crew wins on Saturday — and more cash hardly ensures extra victories.

With school soccer present process an enormous facelift in 2024 — larger conferences, an expanded Faculty Soccer Playoff — each fan base within the nation ought to be asking only one query: Is any of this going to assist us win video games?

For instance: Oklahoma will make much more cash within the SEC than it might have within the Massive 12. However it additionally faces a a lot harder path to a nationwide championship, whereas Kansas State’s probabilities of reaching the CFP have elevated because of the Massive 12’s larger area and the lack of Oklahoma and Texas.

So what about your college? Does its probabilities of success enhance, lower or stay the identical within the sport’s new world order?

To evaluate, I’ve given all 67 power-conference colleges a rating between minus-5 and positive-5. The rating is solely a couple of crew’s skill to win, and doesn’t take note of the crew’s present teaching workers or roster. Scoring a 0 means the varsity is neither higher nor worse off. A rating from 1 to five ranges from mildly higher to much better, and -1 to -5 ranges from mildly worse to … uh oh.

ACC

SMU: +5

Has there been a much bigger realignment winner within the final 30 years? SMU had not completed within the Prime 25 in 4 many years on the time it received the decision as much as the massive leagues final September. Now it is available in with momentum after ending final season No. 22.

Clemson: +3

Dabo Swinney’s 2015-2020 groups needed to be near-perfect to achieve the four-team CFP; his 11-2 ACC title squad in 2022 would have earned a top-4 seed. His aloof portal strategy doesn’t assist his trigger, but it surely doesn’t issue into this rating.

Florida State: +3

The irony of FSU attempting to sue its approach out of the ACC is that the brand new system works in its favor. Would it not fairly be the very best crew within the ACC and earn a top-4 seed and a first-round bye, or the fourth-best crew within the SEC and stay on the bubble?

Louisville: +2

Louisville has upside. The college has the sources and recruiting footprint to be an everyday ACC and CFP contender, and it helps that Louisville is not trapped in a division with Florida State (which it doesn’t play this season) and Clemson.

Miami: +2

The U has been caught within the mud for 20 years, but it surely started flexing its muscle as quickly as NIL went into impact in 2021. This system has a lot of the components wanted to be a 12-team CFP common, supplied the fitting coach is in place.

Virginia Tech: +2

The Hokies would have made a 12-team CFP 9 occasions in a 16-year span (1995-2010) below Frank Beamer. They could by no means replicate that degree of consistency, however there’s no cause they’ll’t turn into a semi-regular contender once more.

NC State: +1

The Wolfpack haven’t gained a convention title since 1979. That could be a tad extra attainable now that they’re not in the identical division as Florida State and Clemson. (Not less than elsewhere, Wolfpack vibes are excessive.)

Georgia Tech: 0

Recruiting has at all times been difficult for the Yellow Jackets, made much more so now by NIL. However based mostly on its historical past, Georgia Tech might make an occasional CFP look. It might have gone in 1990, 1998 and 2009, and would have been the primary crew out in 2014.

North Carolina: 0

This unquestioned basketball college has been lengthy thought of a sleeping large in soccer however has but to get up. If it lastly does, it’s going to extra possible be as a result of an impressed head-coaching rent than the assorted modifications to the game.

Pittsburgh: -2

Pitt is almost 50 years faraway from its nationwide heyday, but it surely did win the ACC in 2021, which might have garnered a 12-team berth. However star receiver Jordan Addison’s leap to USC the next spring was a window into new NIL actuality.

Syracuse: -2

It’s early, however new coach Fran Brown has found there’s cash within the banana stand. Touchdown Ohio State QB Kyle McCord raised eyebrows. Extra broadly, although, it’s arduous to argue the brand new panorama does a lot to learn the Orange.

Virginia: -2

Arguably the one factor UVA had going for it was the mediocrity of the ACC Coastal Division, which it gained in 2019 whereas going 9-3. Now, the Cavaliers — who final completed within the Prime 25 again 20 years in the past — danger falling into deep irrelevance transferring ahead.

Wake Forest: -2

The tiniest college in Energy 4 has extra donor help than one would possibly assume, and it’s not a championship-or-bust fan base. However reaching a 12-team CFP might be largely unattainable. Will applications like this be capable to maintain curiosity?

Boston Faculty: -3

BC is the kind of college that suffers in a world of roster-poaching and NIL offers. Success may even be more and more outlined by Playoff appearances, and the Eagles have completed within the prime 12 solely twice since World Warfare II.

Duke: -3

Duke simply lived via the draw back of its new actuality. It misplaced coach Mike Elko to an SEC college after simply two seasons and quarterback Riley Leonard went to Notre Dame, possible for a seven-figure NIL deal.

Stanford: -4

The Cardinal will at all times appeal to recruits that covet that diploma. However the college’s admissions course of limits it to taking only some transfers a yr, which creates an enormous drawback within the new panorama. And like Cal, the ACC shouldn’t be superb.

Cal: -5

Critical query: Would Cal have been higher off getting Washington State/Oregon State’d? An already lagging program should now compete in a far-away Energy 4 convention whereas receiving 30 p.c of its cash (and with out SMU’s boosters).

Massive Ten

Ohio State: +4

Solely as soon as prior to now 19 seasons have the Buckeyes misplaced greater than two regular-season video games. Which means they might have made a 12-team Playoff all however as soon as prior to now 19 seasons. And possibly pulled off an additional nationwide title or two.

Michigan: +3

For essentially the most half, Michigan will nonetheless be Michigan. The Massive Home will nonetheless pack in 110,000. The season will nonetheless be outlined by whether or not it beats Ohio State. However a 12-team Playoff area definitely doesn’t damage.

Penn State: +3

Had the 12-team Playoff been in place all alongside, James Franklin would have made 5 appearances in his first 10 seasons. The format is good for applications like PSU: not fairly “elite,” however has the sources to compete nationally.

Michigan State: +2

Whereas the Spartans solely made the four-team CFP as soon as, they might have made a 12-team area as many as 5 occasions from 2011-21. Additionally they get Ohio State off the books in 2025 and 2026 after having performed the Buckeyes in 14 consecutive seasons.

Oregon: +2

The Geese are the best-positioned of the 4 West Coast colleges becoming a member of the Massive Ten. They recruit nationally and have Phil Knight’s struggle chest. Whereas nationwide titles have remained elusive, common CFP appearances are reasonable.

Maryland: +1

The Terps are free! They’re not caught within the Massive Ten East, the place their ceiling would endlessly be 7-5 and fourth place out of seven. However the upside could also be restricted till the varsity’s donors make a much bigger splash within the NIL world.

Rutgers: +1

Like “rival” Maryland, Rutgers is lastly out from below the Massive Ten East. It’s additionally doing surprisingly nicely in NIL. This system’s ceiling should still be restricted to 8-4 or so, however that will nonetheless be significantly better than its first decade within the convention.

Nebraska: 0

It might be harder for the Cornhuskers to contend for Massive Ten championships in a much bigger league. However proper now, that’s not even the goal, given they haven’t even reached a bowl sport in eight years. How a lot worse can it get?

Wisconsin: -1

This system has lengthy churned out double-digit wins by “holding serve” in opposition to a lot of the convention whereas sometimes punching up in opposition to Ohio State or Michigan. That might turn into more durable with the arrival of USC, Oregon and Washington.

Illinois: -2

This program has struggled to search out its footing for greater than 20 years, and nothing about this new world helps it. If something, it will likely be harder. Proper out of the gate, the Illini face Penn State, Michigan and Oregon this season.

Indiana: -2

The excellent news: no extra getting clobbered by Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State within the Massive Ten East. The unhealthy information: Indiana, lengthy identified for apathy in soccer, shouldn’t be more likely to be as flush in NIL cash as most of its rivals.

USC: -2

Whereas it didn’t play like one for a lot of the previous 15 years, USC was essentially the most prestigious program in its former convention. Within the Massive Ten, it will likely be, at finest, the third banana to Ohio State and Michigan, and probably fifth behind Penn State and Oregon.

Washington: -2

The Huskies have been the category of the Pac-12 the final two seasons, but it surely helped to not have an Ohio State or Michigan of their league. Now they’ve each, plus USC, Oregon and Penn State. Will the transient Kalen DeBoer period go down as an outlier?

Minnesota: -3

It’s unlucky for the Golden Gophers that they’ve but to achieve the Massive Ten Championship Recreation, as a result of now it could by no means occur. A Playoff berth shouldn’t be not possible, however Minnesota has had one top-10 season prior to now 60 years.

Northwestern: -3

The brand new world might not be variety to overachiever applications like Northwestern. Whereas it often makes bowl video games and posts occasional Prime 25 seasons, it has not completed excessive sufficient to make a 12-team CFP since 1996.

Purdue: -3

Not more likely to contend for Playoff berths whether or not the sphere is 4 or 12. Purdue’s purpose is to get to bowl video games, and reaching six wins turns into more durable with out the advantage of a Massive Ten West schedule.

Iowa: -4

The Hawkeyes have made a dwelling out of grinding out mediocre Massive Ten West foes whereas dropping 42-3 to Michigan or 54-10 to Ohio State. In an 18-team league with no extra unbalanced divisions and three incoming Prime-25 recruiting colleges, Iowa might be in for a reckoning.

UCLA: -4

Nearly nothing concerning the new world does the Bruins any favors. UCLA is a basketball college whose donors have achieved little to help soccer’s NIL efforts. It’s becoming a member of a convention full of massive manufacturers and football-first fan bases. Not a recipe for fulfillment.

Massive 12

BYU: +5

The Cougars have lastly climbed the mountaintop after spending their whole historical past both in a non-power convention or as an impartial. They now have direct entry to the CFP, and gained’t end ranked sixteenth with only one loss, as occurred in 2020.

Cincinnati: +4

The Bearcats’ dream season in 2021 doesn’t should be an aberration going ahead, as they gained’t should go undefeated to make the Playoff. And power-conference standing ought to assist them land extra recruits of their fertile metropolis and state.

Houston: +4

After practically 30 years within the post-Southwest Convention wilderness, the Cougars are again in a significant convention alongside previous rivals Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU. However attaining constant success within the Massive 12 is hardly a given after up-and-downs within the AAC.

UCF: +4

Like BYU, Cincinnati and Houston, UCF received its Energy 4 life raft, and it’s not just like the Knights have been struggling beforehand. They’ve reached three BCS/CFP bowl video games since 2013. The one query is how they’ll fare as a geographic outlier within the new Massive 12.

Baylor: +2

Since 2013, the Bears have gained three Massive 12 titles and reached 4 BCS bowls however have fallen wanting reaching the CFP. In a 12-team area, all of these groups would make it. And that was with Texas and Oklahoma within the convention.

Kansas State: +2

Okay-State might thrive within the new world. It might have made the 12-team CFP 4 occasions since 2011. It has sneaky-good NIL help. The largest problem might be revenue-sharing. Solely three public Energy 5 colleges made much less in 2022.

Oklahoma State: +2

Mike Gundy has fielded eight double-digit win groups, all of which might have been 12-team CFP contenders. Most of these groups misplaced to Oklahoma, in opposition to which Gundy is 4-15. The Cowboys not should cope with the Sooners.

TCU: +2

The Frogs would have made a 12-team area thrice since 2014, and, due to the Metroplex, they’ve the very best recruiting ceiling among the many holdovers.

Colorado: +1

Something can be higher than the Buffs’ abysmal 13-year tenure within the Pac-12. The Buffs get again into the Texas footprint, which they benefitted from within the previous Massive 12. However the college nonetheless faces an uphill climb within the NIL world, with or with out Deion Sanders.

Texas Tech: +1

The Pink Raiders have largely flailed because the late Mike Leach’s 2009 ouster, but it surely’s not for lack of sources and fan help. Getting out from below Texas might assist, and whereas CFP berths could be rare, they’re attainable.

Iowa State: 0

The Cyclones, who haven’t gained a convention championship since 1912, will nonetheless have all the identical evergreen challenges. They might profit from a extra degree model of the Massive 12, however they’ll nonetheless should perpetually overachieve.

Kansas: 0

The identical Iowa State blurb might be utilized to Kansas, which has completed ranked roughly as soon as per decade. An expanded Playoff offers the Jayhawks barely extra hope for glory, however 2007 seasons might stay extremely uncommon.

Utah: -1

Utah enters its new league as sturdy as any of its applications, however man, did the Utes have a great factor going within the Pac-12. Not solely did they attain 4 league title video games in 5 years, however they might lord their Energy 5 membership over rival BYU. No extra.

West Virginia: -1

The Mountaineers have misplaced a substantial amount of their identification since leaving the previous Massive East for the Massive 12 in 2012, and the additional dilution of the convention gained’t assist. However they did at the least achieve their first geographic associate when Cincinnati joined.

Arizona: -2

Becoming a member of the Massive 12 was nice for Arizona basketball. In all probability not a lot for soccer, the place it has little in widespread with colleges in football-crazed Texas. Historical past suggests the Wildcats will not often contend for a spot within the Playoff.

Arizona State: -3

ASU president Michael Crow needed to be dragged kicking and screaming into the Massive 12. The professional-market college has little in widespread with the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, which, in contrast to the Solar Devils, have rabid fan bases.

SEC

Alabama: +4

I don’t anticipate post-Nick Saban Alabama to make a 12-team CFP practically each single yr, like I do Ohio State, merely due to the depth of the SEC. However it’s nonetheless one in all a small handful of applications constructed to reach any period.

Georgia: +4

Now, even Georgia’s “down” seasons would possibly nonetheless finish in CFP berths. Kirby Sensible would at present have seven straight, up from three in eight seasons. Between Sensible and Mark Richt, the Bulldogs would have 13 since 2001.

LSU: +3

The Tigers have gained three nationwide championships this century, however they may have performed for much more have been there a 12-team area. They might have made 9 by now. After all, they might additionally fireplace coaches extra steadily for lacking the Playoff.

Texas: +3

Not like rival Oklahoma, Texas has gained simply three convention titles this century, in order that shouldn’t be the measuring stick. However Mack Brown confirmed what the ceiling might be. He would have reached eight 12-team CFPs in a decade.

Florida: +2

Florida should play Georgia yearly whereas mixing in Texas and Oklahoma. However a 12-team Playoff might show a godsend; the Gators would have made the postseason three consecutive occasions below Dan Mullen and 10 occasions since 2000.

Ole Miss: +2

Ole Miss has not gained the SEC since 1963. Oklahoma and Texas gained’t make it any simpler. However this system could make the 12-team CFP, and its NIL collective has turn into one of many fashions within the sport.

Tennessee: 0

The Vols are nonetheless taking part in rivals Alabama, Florida and Georgia for the subsequent two seasons whereas including Oklahoma. That’s tough. However Tennessee’s collective is powerful, and it has the sources and recruiting cachet to achieve occasional CFPs.

Auburn: -1

A drawing of the historical past of Auburn soccer arcs like a curler coaster, with transient spurs of nationwide supremacy combined in between lengthy stretches of middle-of-the-pack. And the league simply added two extra above-the-middle historic applications.

Missouri: -1

Missouri would have reached 12-team fields in 2007, 2013 and 2023. That growth is nice. However the Tigers have benefitted at occasions from being within the SEC’s simpler division, which is now gone, and they’re .250 all-time in opposition to Oklahoma and Texas.

Arkansas: -2

On the intense aspect, Arkansas will get previous rival Texas again. On the draw back, the Razorbacks have but to win the SEC in its 32 years of membership, and it’s not getting simpler. They might have reached a 12-team CFP thrice in these 32 years.

Texas A&M: -2

The most effective factor the Aggies had going for them within the SEC was that Texas wasn’t in it. Alas. The return of annual matchups with the Longhorns ought to be unbelievable for leisure functions however might make for a harder schedule.

Kentucky: -3

Mark Stoops is on monitor to have a statue sculpted for taking the Wildcats to eight straight bowl video games, however these Gator and Music Metropolis bowls may not really feel as vital within the new world. Additionally they might turn into more durable to achieve with no SEC East.

Mississippi State: -3

The Bulldogs have completed above .500 in SEC play this century simply as soon as, in 2014 with Dak Prescott. The SEC getting larger, and probably transferring to 9 convention video games, is more likely to be unkind for State.

Oklahoma: -3

From 1938-2021, the Sooners claimed a Massive 8/Massive 12 championship in 47 of these 83 seasons. No main program within the nation has extra league titles. Realistically, OU is not going to come near having fun with that degree of dominance within the SEC.

South Carolina: -3

Save for that one three-year peak below Steve Spurrier from 2011-13, the Gamecocks have not often lived within the prime half of the SEC. Now they’re dropping the SEC East. It should turn into much more troublesome to keep up relevance.

Vanderbilt: -4

Vanderbilt was already caught taking part in the worst playing cards within the SEC deck. Now there’s an entire new set of challenges stacked in opposition to their deck: the larger SEC, the significance of NIL and roster poaching from the portal.

The remainder

Notre Dame: +2

Some would possibly fixate on the truth that the impartial Combating Irish can by no means get a first-round bye within the new system, however that misses the bigger level: They might attain many extra CFPs. They might have made 5 in Brian Kelly’s 12 seasons.

Oregon State and Washington State: -5

There’s no sugarcoating it: Two historic Energy 5 applications have been relegated to de facto Group of 5 standing, taking part in de facto Mountain West schedules. And in contrast to precise G5 colleges, they haven’t any assured entry to the Playoff.

All Group of 5 applications: -3

For the primary time in historical past, one in all these colleges is assured to compete for a nationwide championship yearly. However that doesn’t offset the additional irrelevance — nor the ache of Energy 4 colleges poaching all of their finest gamers.

Greater takeaways

As standard, the largest modifications to the game nearly at all times largely profit the “massive boys” essentially the most. Outdoors of the previous G5 applications transferring up, the largest beneficiaries are the Alabamas, Georgias and Ohio States of the game. There are, nevertheless, just a few exceptions: Oklahoma and USC fall into the “watch out what you want for” class.
And whereas the Massive 12 is at present scrounging for any further penny it could increase, no convention had a better proportion of on-field gainers. That’s as a result of Playoff berths at the moment are attainable for the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas State and TCU.
Solely two of the previous Pac-12 colleges (Oregon and Colorado) received a constructive rating, as most are coming into their new conferences begrudgingly. It should by no means not be stupefying to consider how Pac-12 management screwed it up so badly.

(Prime illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Images: Sam Wasson, Kevin C. Cox, Scott Taetsch, Brett Deering / Getty)