The WNBA is already full velocity forward into the second half of the season, and it’s going to be a dash to the end. Common-season motion ends in precisely one month, with every crew packing 12-14 video games within the remaining stretch.
As gamers re-acclimate to following the Olympic break and make one final push for the postseason, here’s a have a look at which groups I challenge will make the playoffs in addition to a to-do listing for every crew to deal with to be in the absolute best place come playoff time.
Playoff-bound
1. New York Liberty
Keep the course
The Liberty remind me of the Aces at this level final season. New York is the perfect crew within the league, and a few unhealthy video games or a nasty week gained’t change that, simply as an August swoon for Las Vegas didn’t stop the Aces from repeating as champs. Will probably be fascinating to see if the Liberty select to chase the single-season wins report of 34, set by the Aces final yr. New York also can tie the perfect profitable proportion of all-time — the Houston Comets gained 90 p.c of their video games in 1998 — by profitable out, however that could be a Pyrrhic victory if the Liberty tire themselves out and don’t cap off the season with a hoop. Simply ask the 2016 Golden State Warriors.
The bag was DEEP and the Libs closed the West Coast tour out the correct manner 💪 #LIGHTITUPNYL pic.twitter.com/raBUvOswFb
— New York Liberty (@nyliberty) August 18, 2024
2. Minnesota Lynx
Inject a bit selection
The Lynx are loaded with leap shooters, however they don’t put a ton of stress on the rim, as they’re final in factors within the paint and free-throw charge. That makes them too reliant on the 3-point shot for an extended collection, even after they have 4 rotation gamers (Kayla McBride, Alanna Smith, Bridget Carleton and Cecilia Zandalasini) capturing higher than 40 p.c from the sphere. Once they shoot under 35.5 p.c from 3-point vary (league common is 33.8), they’re 5-5. As soon as defenses lock in on taking away the 3-point line — the Liberty, specifically, appear well-suited to modify every part in opposition to them — it’s unclear how the Lynx will generate constant offense.
3. Connecticut Solar
Diversify the offensive assault
The Solar are basically the inverse of the Lynx when it comes to their offensive profile. They know what they’ve within the massive three of Alyssa Thomas, Bri Jones and DeWanna Bonner. However that trio hasn’t been in a position to get Connecticut over the hump within the postseason, so the remainder of this common season ought to function reconnaissance for the Solar — they want to determine which perimeter participant, or which perimeter actions, can take over when defenses house in on the frontcourt. Connecticut has leaned into two-player actions with the newly-acquired Marina Mabrey and Thomas, however in opposition to the Atlanta Dream protection, which sinks into the paint, the Solar’s spacing nonetheless wasn’t ok. Connecticut must create extra choices within the half courtroom, together with rising its 3-point try charge. Presently, 21.2 p.c of the Solar’s factors come from past the arc, which isn’t sufficient in opposition to high-powered offensive groups just like the Aces and the Liberty.
4. Las Vegas Aces
Give the celebs some relaxation
The Aces have the bones of the crew that gained final yr’s title, however they haven’t been in a position to put collectively that components persistently. It’s exhausting to imagine that crew isn’t nonetheless there, particularly after watching A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Younger have such robust showings on the Paris Olympics. The issue is that the Aces have an enormous hill to climb within the standings, and their gamers have endured heavy minutes this yr, to not point out the additional burden of a number of investigations into the group. They could not have the fuel to make it by way of a complete playoff run in the event that they preserve the identical minutes load. Consequently, despite the fact that it’s anathema to their stars, as Becky Hammon indicated on The Athletic’s “Girls’s Basketball Present” earlier this yr, they’ll possible need to take part in some measure of load administration. Younger already seems worn down after getting back from Paris, and she or he’s arguably Las Vegas’ second-most vital participant. Even when it hurts them within the standings, the Aces need to take the lengthy view.
W secured 📽️📊
Wilson: 34 PTS / 13 REB / 5 STL / 2 BLK / 60% FG
Plum: 18 PTS / 4 3PM / 46% FG
Hayes: 11 PTS / 3 REB / 50% FG
Younger: 10 PTS / 4 REB / 4 AST / 2 STL / 2 3PM#ALLINLV pic.twitter.com/qA5z1t19Qs— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) August 19, 2024
5. Seattle Storm
Get Jewell Loyd out of her hunch
The Storm’s 3-point capturing has been atrocious in 2024, with a league-worst 29.3 p.c from lengthy vary. Seattle isn’t precisely bursting with snipers, however when the participant who’s taking greater than 1 / 4 of the crew’s 3-point makes an attempt is capturing 26 p.c from distance, that’s an issue. The speculation was that Jewell Loyd’s capturing percentages would enhance with a lighter offensive load given the arrival of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike, however that hasn’t been the case. Nothing seems improper with Loyd’s kind, and she or he’s nonetheless making greater than 87 p.c of her free throws, so it looks like a matter of time till the worm turns, however the Storm’s offense can’t survive with out Loyd turning into extra environment friendly.
6. Indiana Fever
Be extra disciplined defensively
The Fever have a number of defensive issues, as is to be anticipated for a crew that’s second-to-last in defensive score. Lots of these issues have been mitigated by their rip-roaring offense in current video games, however the principle situation is how typically they ship opposing groups to the foul line. It could be simpler to forgive opponents’ excessive free-throw charge if Indiana compelled a number of turnovers — these free throws would merely be a casualty of Indiana’s aggression. Nevertheless, the Fever rank final in opponent turnover proportion and eleventh in defensive free-throw charge. They’ll afford to be much less handsy as a result of they’re not taking the ball anyway; moreover, per PBP stats, they rating 6.7 extra factors per 100 possessions off of made subject targets than made free throws.
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7. Phoenix Mercury
Rebound
Some groups prioritize the defensive glass, others the offensive glass. With the Mercury, corralling boards is a battle on each ends. They rank eleventh in each offensive rebounding proportion and defensive rebounding proportion. A few of that is structural, as Phoenix usually performs a bevy of wings and just one true frontcourt participant, whether or not that’s Brittney Griner or Natasha Mack. The Mercury have gotten even smaller with the harm to Rebecca Allen, which has additional compromised their possession drawback — the opposing crew took 14 extra field-goal makes an attempt in every of their first two video games of the second half. The roster gained’t change meaningfully from now till the tip of the season; at this level, Phoenix has to decide to boxing out higher.
8. Atlanta Dream
Play extra optimum lineup mixtures
The Dream had a comparatively disastrous first half, particularly since they gave up management of their 2025 first-round decide within the Allisha Grey commerce — that deal was the correct transfer for Atlanta in the long term, nevertheless it does negate the worth of tanking forward of what might be a game-changing draft. That’s why the Dream have to maximise their current and make a run on the playoffs regardless of shedding eight straight heading into the Olympic break.
Thankfully for the Dream, Atlanta is lastly wholesome sufficient to maximise its roster. Even after profitable two in a row, the Dream sit final within the league in offensive score at 94.8 factors per 100 possessions, which might be the worst mark within the WNBA since 2021. The 5 gamers who’ve a constructive on-off differential on offense are Grey, Tina Charles, Naz Hillmon, Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada, however they had been by no means accessible on the identical time through the first half. They’re now, and Tanisha Wright has began that group within the final two contests, main to 2 massive wins over Seattle and Connecticut. That’s a unit that enhances one another’s ability units with rim stress, capturing and perimeter and inside protection, and Atlanta wants to maximise their minutes going ahead.
JC didn’t come to play! 🔥 #atlantadream pic.twitter.com/7vjakGTrfM
— Atlanta Dream (@AtlantaDream) August 19, 2024
Chasing the post-season
9. Chicago Sky
Unleash Dana Evans
The Sky have 5 gamers below contract subsequent season, two of whom determine to be a part of the longer term core in Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso. Dana Evans can be a restricted free agent, so Chicago can hold her round on a long-term contract if she reveals compatibility with the frontcourt duo. To this point, Lindsay Allen and Chennedy Carter have been much better perimeter enhances, however that is Evans’ likelihood to make her case to stay round. Even when it doesn’t go effectively, shedding isn’t the worst-case situation for the Sky, which might nonetheless land within the lottery in the event that they and the Wings each miss the playoffs.
10. Dallas Wings
Clear up turnovers
In some unspecified time in the future, we’ll cease speaking in regards to the gap at Dallas’ level guard place. At this time shouldn’t be that day. The Wings had their first-choice beginning 5 accessible in opposition to Connecticut to kick off the second half of the season, and all that led to was 21 turnovers, even worse than their league-leading mark of 16.6 per sport. Sevgi Uzun hasn’t been the reply at level guard; 19.4 p.c of her possessions lead to a turnover, which ranks one hundred and thirty fifth amongst all WNBA gamers. Final yr’s three-headed level guard assault of Crystal Dangerfield, Veronica Burton and Odyssey Sims is all on different groups, leaving Uzun and rookie Jacy Sheldon (who actually isn’t a pure lead guard) to deal with these duties, and struggles have been clear.
In equity to these rookies, post-ups naturally result in extra turnovers, and Dallas (arguably the largest crew within the league) ranks second in post-ups per sport. However, most of the Wings’ errors are unforced, doubtlessly a results of their mishmash of gamers not being on the identical web page. Maybe higher well being will result in extra cohesion as a result of Dallas must handle its possessions to get again into the playoff image.
11. Los Angeles Sparks
Flip the Paige
Sadly for long-suffering Sparks followers who’ve witnessed their crew make three consecutive journeys to the lottery, a fourth is in the perfect long-term curiosity of the franchise, particularly after rookie Cameron Brink tore her ACL in June. L.A. doesn’t have the expertise to compete within the playoffs, and it doesn’t make sense to chase the eighth seed for a two-game sweep, particularly when the Sparks management their first-round decide this yr however not in 2026. Ideally, L.A. options its younger gamers as a lot as potential and sees what Rickea Jackson, Rae Burrell, Zia Cooke and Li Yueru are able to earlier than the 2025 offseason, when the Sparks must construct a roster that may contend. Falling to the underside of the standings (L.A. is at present two video games “forward” of Washington for the worst report over two years) will allow the Sparks to have the absolute best lottery odds for the Paige Bueckers draft. She’s the right perimeter complement to their rookie frontcourt of Brink and Jackson.
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12. Washington Mystics
Re-establish Shakira Austin
After an all-rookie marketing campaign in 2022 that culminated in a spot on the Group USA FIBA World Cup roster, Austin hasn’t been wholesome sufficient to recreate that degree of play for constant stretches. Now that she’s again for the Mystics, that is their likelihood to reacclimate Austin to WNBA play whereas seeing how she matches subsequent to Aaliyah Edwards. Washington will possible have at the least one, if not two, lottery picks within the upcoming draft, and the entrance workplace wants to determine if the franchise wants one other frontcourt piece, or if Austin and Edwards might be the fulcrums going ahead. The excellent news for the Mystics is that they’ve competent guard play in Julie Vanloo and Brittney Sykes, to allow them to adequately consider their frontcourt in that context.
(Picture of Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark: Justin Casterline / Getty Photographs)
